Coders — Hanging on By a Metaphorical Thread
In the wake of rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, the programming landscape is undergoing a transformation that is both exciting but honestly, unsettling.
While AI tools like GitLab Copilot and chatbots like ChatGPT have revolutionized the way we approach coding, their emergence has sparked a debate about the future of programming jobs.
In my previous post, I argued that programming jobs would not disappear in the medium-term, thanks to factors such as the resurgence of startups and the unique needs of niche markets. However, this optimistic outlook does not eliminate the challenges and shifts that are expected to occur in both the short-term and long-term within the field.
So here’s my prediction: It will come in three phases, a Short-term Shock, a Mid-term Lull, and a Long-term Death of the majority of the field.
The Short-term Shock
In the immediate future, we are witnessing a shock in the job market for programmers, particularly at the entry-level. I’ve heard it can feel impossible to enter the field. As AI continues to excel at automating routine coding tasks, the demand for junior programmers, who often handle these types of tasks, will and is decreasing. This reduction is leading to a temporary oversupply of junior developers, making it more challenging for newcomers to the field to find their footing. Just graduated? Opps. Sorry.
On the other hand, there will and can be opportunities for tech jobs where you barely need to know how to code because you just have AI do it for you. The code might not be great, but when has that stopped employers from saving a few bucks?
The Mid-term Lull
Slowly, jobs will pick up again. Wages won’t. The existence of ridiculous Silicon Valley salaries for anything but top researchers is dead. Programmers will integrate both paid and open source AI tools into their workflow and productivity will increase, opening the doors for better code, more niche applications, and even more presssure at work. After all, if you aren’t writing the code and the machine is, it can’t be that hard? Expect your boss to come down hard when things go wrong and when doing innovative work.
The Long-term Death
Tools like https://onlook.dev/ and https://fronty.com/ are already in beta or exist to use AI to convert images into HTML/CSS. This might sound terrifying but most programmers out there would agree they don’t want to be repeating the designer’s work and doing repetitive tasks for no reason. But we still want a job.
We’re already seeing it easier to type what you want and get code out of LLMs. These programs will only get better in combination with no-code solutions.
So there’s the dilemma in innovation. Just as the typesetters and hand-seamstresses before us, we might be in a dying profession. This means the democratization of code, where more people can make more amazing products, but it’s also rightfully terrifying for a lot of us. Not another one of these AI-generated articles will convince you otherwise, I promise. If you’re reading this for that hope, I’ll give you just a little as your resident Chipotle-powered (and not bit-powered) writer.
The Exceptions
Will any coder escape the singularity with their job intact? Depends on what you do. There are jobs out there that looks like they won’t be replaced soon.
Are you…
- …an academic researcher?
- …in a niche combination like fashion + computer vision or agriculture + robotics?
- …more skills than just a coder, like a UX designer or an architect?
- …highly skilled in cyber security?
You might survive. The rest of us? I’m not so hopeful. Pivot or perish. …is that enough hope for today? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
But seriously, good luck.